Global markets traded in mixed fashion on September 12 as a hotter-than-expected US CPI for August reshaped monetary policy expectations. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 jumped to 86–87% per CME FedWatch, up from around 70% before the report, while prediction markets priced roughly 80%. Bitcoin held in the $77,200–$77,400 range, failing to close above $80,000, while Ethereum became the day's biggest winner, rising about 8% amid record two-week ETF inflows. Escalation in the Middle East pushed Brent above $104, and XRP traded in a low-volatility zone ahead of the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act scheduled for September 15.
CLARITY Act: key vote on September 15
The US Senate is preparing a procedural vote (cloture) on the CLARITY Act for September 15. Sixty votes are needed to move to debate, but the latest version includes 114 Democratic amendments and no Democratic senator has publicly backed the bill — ethics provisions remain central to the dispute, with reports of consultations involving Trump's advisers before the vote. The outcome is seen as capable of setting the tone for the entire crypto market for months, as the CLARITY Act determines how SEC and CFTC powers over digital assets are divided.
Senator Lummis said: «If the CLARITY Act fails, Democrats are responsible for what comes next.» Goldman Sachs has sided with the law and parted ways with banking associations, while banks remain divided over the question of stablecoin yield. In this context, the SEC delayed the effectiveness of the Teucrium 2x Short Daily XRP ETF registration to October 11, and Roundhill postponed the effective date of its XRP Covered Call ETF to the same day — a sign of caution among issuers. Spot XRP ETFs posted zero net inflows on September 11, with total assets of $1.45 billion. Polymarket prices the probability of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 at around 18–22%.
Hot inflation data and Fed odds
August CPI came in ahead of forecasts at +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y. Large banks raised their core PCE forecasts: Barclays expects around 0.25%, Goldman Sachs ~0.26%, Nomura ~0.278%, Bank of America ~0.30% and TD Securities ~0.32%. Notably, a Bloomberg survey showed less than 13% of 48 economists expected a September hike. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank announced a 25 bps rate increase earlier. A Fed hike is widely seen as the strongest macro headwind for risk assets, including crypto, through dollar strength and tighter liquidity.
Polymarket traders put the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by end of September at 64% (down from ~93% on September 9) and the probability of a drop toward $75,000 at 68.5%, after BTC printed an intraday high of $79,505. Sentiment has also turned exceptionally positive: the Bitcoin sentiment index topped 89 for the first time since March 2024.
Ethereum shines as ETF flows diverge
Ethereum was the standout of the day. Ether rose about 8%, briefly touching $2,665, with daily liquidations exceeding $255 million — defying bearish expectations. Ethereum was the only crypto fund with net inflows on September 11: $216.41 million, the highest since August 27, with BlackRock's ETHA drawing $148 million. This came despite Goldman Sachs warning of a 25 bps Fed hike. Over the week, Ethereum funds attracted roughly $196.9 million, while spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $462.7 million; Bitcoin spot ETFs also saw an outflow of $13.29 million on September 11.
A weekly recap additionally referenced a $320 million loss at Liquid Network with no further details; it remains unconfirmed at this point. A separate exploit at the cross-chain bridge Symbiosis affected a Bitcoin bridge — not Bitcoin itself — and the service was temporarily halted, once again highlighting risks around wrapped BTC.
Geopolitics pushes oil higher
Escalation in the Middle East weighed on risk appetite. Donald Trump said in Dublin that the US–Iran war could end soon and predicted falling oil prices, while Iran ruled out unconditional talks. Saudi Arabia temporarily halted the East–West oil pipeline (~4–5% of global supply) after a drone strike that Riyadh said was launched from Iraq; Iraqi authorities seized 15 drone launch platforms, suspended a provincial commander and closed three border crossings with Iran. Brent closed above $104 on Friday, up more than 8% on the week, as Bitcoin held near $77,240 (+0.53%).
Revolut data breach and other security stories
Revolut confirmed it shared sensitive client data with an attacker who sent a request from a fake government email domain that passed SPF, DKIM and DMARC checks. The leaked data included names, dates of birth, document copies, IBANs and full transaction histories, including Bitcoin operations. Revolut said customer funds were not affected and a limited number of clients were impacted; notifications began around September 11, with public confirmation on September 12. On a related note, Blockstream said it would refuse to pay Bitcoin hackers a ransom, and the exploit at the Symbiosis bridge raised fresh questions about bridge security.
Institutional and corporate moves
Gemini secured a full Major Payment Institution license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, covering Digital Payment Token services through its subsidiary Gemini Digital Payments Singapore. In Japan, Metaplanet cut its unused Series 10 warrant pool by 55.5% to 105.37 million shares and cancelled over $220 million worth of potential shares after shareholder backlash; the company's Bitcoin per fully diluted share is set to rise by roughly 8.8%. Strategy's preferred shares (STRC) closed at $98.64 on September 11, up 38% from the June low and just $1.36 below par value, and analysts see MSTR rallying toward $185. UK financial markets also drew attention: crypto billionaires donated a record £72 million ($97 million) to Reform UK over two days, including the largest single donation in UK political history.
Ripple, the stablecoin push, and altcoins
Ripple clarified in a September 11 blog post that RLUSD is issued by Standard Custody & Trust Company under an NYDFS limited trust charter with segregated reserves and independent attestations, describing the conditional OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank as an intermediate step. BNY has served as primary custodian of RLUSD reserves since July 2025. The company also issued 10 million RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, keeping the circulating supply above $1 billion ($1.05 billion), while a Ripple product executive argued that XRP's killer use case lies in institutional lending collateral.
Beyond Ripple, Solana reclaimed the $100 level despite a short-term death cross, trading around $101.98, while a Solana Summit is set for September 14 in Washington with SEC leadership in attendance. Cardano shipped the Hydra 2.4.1 security update fixing a vulnerability that could have allowed attackers to steal funds from a Hydra Head. Uniswap processed $70.6 billion in volume over 30 days, more than its three closest rivals combined. BNB Chain became the fastest-growing network by real-world asset value in 2026, and a US bank is reportedly testing its own stablecoin on Stellar. USDe and sUSDe are expanding to TRON, and Roundhill's decision, alongside Teucrium's delay, points to caution in the altcoin ETF segment more broadly.
AI and broader technology
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slowing the development of frontier AI models and proposed a three-step plan that would embed external evaluators with employee-level access inside every frontier AI lab; Sam Altman and Elon Musk voiced support. Separately, Reuters reported that Nvidia is discussing an anchor investment of up to $10 billion in a potential Anthropic IPO that could raise as much as $100 billion at a valuation of around $2 trillion — talks are ongoing and could change. Elon Musk has committed all of SpaceX's AI infrastructure to Nvidia Vera Rubin chips, and Larry Ellison cancelled a plan to sell up to 50 million Oracle shares (~$7.5 billion) the day after it became public.
Beyond the exchanges, hybrid AI developments kept security in focus: AI-driven breaches took a toll across financial services — a California banking relief case added to a wave of impersonation attacks, and Payward led the week's crypto VC funding with a $100 million round, with Latitude raising $35 million.